April statistics are showing a far more robust market condition on the North Shore than is currently portrayed in the regional media. Through March and the start of April, sales prices have been moving up slightly in North and West Vancouver on both detached and attached homes. So far, this has not been enough to turn it into a seller’s market, merely making it a little more balanced on negotiations than it was in the winter. It should also be noted that this relative strength is not present throughout the region. It is very much a North Shore phenomenon at the moment. When official statistics are reported in early May, they will be likely reflective of a continuation of the recent trends. For buyers of North Shore properties, this could possibly mean your time is limited to extract concessions from sellers. For sellers, should these two months continue through the spring, better days may lie ahead.
North Vancouver Entry-Level Houses ($1.4-2.1M) | West Vancouver Houses Under $2.4M
North Vancouver Move-Up Houses ($2.1-2.8M) | West Vancouver Move-Up Houses ($2.4-3.2M)
These market dynamics are playing out during some of the most volatile geopolitical events of the century. With the Mideast war raging on and oscillating between ceasefire and hot war, blockade and opening of one of the busiest waterways in the world, and on again/off again peace talks, the situation changes hourly. The impact on inflation expectations and therefore interest rates has not abated and weighs heavy on the purchasing power and willingness of buyers to accept risk. Those who obtained pre-approvals for mortgages a few months ago, may be motivated to use those lower rates before they expire. While those who are paying today’s rates may need to be more discerning with offer prices.
Bond yields are elevated and are now sustaining some of the highest rates we’ve seen since the summer of ’24. Earlier this year, expectations were for one or possibly two rate cuts by the Bank of Canada and up to four cuts (one percentage point) by the US Federal Reserve. Today, those odds have shifted dramatically to now expecting one rate hike by the BoC and no change by the Fed. Of course, these expectations are just as volatile (and partly driven by) the geopolitical situation. We can only hope for speedy resolution to the conflict and a quick normalization of global trade. Given the brinksmanship and trade mercantilism seen in the past year, that hope seems awfully misplaced.
North Vancouver Townhomes Under $1.3M | North Vancouver 2BR Condos Under $800K
Global stock markets that originally took a sizable hit in the early days of the war and skyrocketing oil prices have now recovered and many have reached new highs. As investors look for safety from inflation, they continue to flee to large corporations with stable cashflows. Most of those are in the USA. A persistent wealth effect from rising asset prices will eventually trickle through to real estate everywhere. Rising liquidity lifts all boats.
Liquidity is also finding it’s way back into Bitcoin as it nears the $80,000 mark after a deep correction. The big accumulators, Strategy and the ETFs continue to accumulate coins and absorb the profit-taking of early adopters. Gold continues to digest its meteoric rise from earlier in the year, while copper has regained the $6 level. The liquidity will continue to find its way into the metals as a store of value if the war persists. Oil has found a new range between $85-105. Inflation worries will escalate if it goes much higher than that for any length of time. Regardless of whether the war subsides quickly, it will take a very long time (years possibly) to restart the shut-in production and to replenish strategic reserves being depleted by the war. It’s never been more important to have the ability to meet the world’s needs for energy.
North Shore Real Estate Team
Disclaimer: The information provided in this column is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. While we strive to provide accurate and up-to-date information, we make no warranties or representations as to its accuracy, completeness, or reliability. Any actions taken based on this information are at your own risk. Always consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
